Method for Quantification of Fatty Acids in Ice Cores and Sea-Ice Cores Using Liquid Chromatography High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry

Marine-sourced fatty acids provide a promising new suite of proxies for past sea-ice reconstructions, validated using ice cores from Bouvet Island, Greenland, and Alaska. Despite showing great potential as a sea-ice proxy, the transport, deposition, and preservation of these fatty acids within the ice sheet are poorly understood. Additionally, complementary data of the same suite of fatty acids in the source, the surrounding sea ice, is lacking in number, spatial distribution, and seasonal variety, especially in the Antarctic. This study presents an improved method using high-performance liquid chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometry (HPLC-HRMS) for the determination of marine-sourced fatty acids in ice cores and sea ice. The method presents a new preconcentration step using stir bar sorptive extraction (SBSE) as well as reduced background contamination using a trapping column tandem analytical system in HPLC. The method is suitable to detect and quantify a suite of 10 fatty acids with recoveries above 70% and with limits of detection in the low ppb and subppb levels. A range of fatty acids were detected and quantified in samples from two sub-Antarctic ice cores, taken from Peter first Island and Young Island. The results from these cores displayed a variety of fatty acids present in both ice cores (lauric acid, myristic acid, oleic acid, linoleic acid, palmitoleic acid, heptadecanoic acid, pentadecanoic acid, docosahexaenoic acid, eicosapentaenoic acid, and arachidonic acid) as well as a large difference in concentrations between different fatty acids and between the two ice cores. Additionally, this study presents the first results of fatty acid concentrations in the pancake sea ice collected from the Antarctic Marginal Ice Zone

An updated landslide susceptibility model and a log-Gaussian Cox process extension for Scotland

At the time of its development, GeoSure was created using expert knowledge based on a thorough understanding of the engineering geology of the rocks and soils of Great Britain. The ability to use a data-driven methodology to develop a national-scale landslide susceptibility was not possible due to the relatively small size of the landslide inventory at the time. In the intervening 20 years, the National Landslide Database has grown from around 6000 points to over 18,000 records today and continues to be added to. With the availability of this additional inventory, new data-driven solutions could be utilised. Here, we tested a Bernoulli likelihood model to estimate the probability of debris flow occurrence and a log-Gaussian Cox process model to estimate the rate of debris flow occurrence per slope unit. Scotland was selected as the test site for a preliminary experiment, which could potentially be extended to the whole British landscape in the future. Inference techniques for both of these models are applied within a Bayesian framework. The Bayesian framework can work with the two models as additive structures, which allows for the incorporation of spatial and covariate information in a flexible way. The framework also provides uncertainty estimates with model outcomes. We also explored consideration on how to communicate uncertainty estimates together with model predictions in a way that would ensure an integrated framework for master planners to use with ease, even if administrators do not have a specific statistical background. Interestingly, the spatial predictive patterns obtained do not stray away from those of the previous GeoSure methodology, but rigorous numerical modelling now offers objectivity and a much richer predictive description

Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya

Kenya and the wider East African region suffer from significant flood risk, as illustrated by major losses of lives, livelihoods and assets in the most recent years. This is likely to increase in future as exposure rises and rainfall intensifies under climate change. Accordingly, flood risk management is a priority action area in Kenya's national climate change adaptation planning. Here, we outline the opportunities and challenges to improve end-to-end flood early warning systems, considering the scientific, technical and institutional/governance dimensions. We demonstrate improvements in rainfall forecasts, river flow, inundation and baseline flood risk information. Notably, East Africa is a ‘sweetspot’ for rainfall predictability at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales for extending forecast lead times beyond a few days and for ensemble flood forecasting. Further, we demonstrate coupled ensemble flow forecasting, new flood inundation simulation, vulnerability and exposure data to support Impact based Forecasting (IbF). We illustrate these advances in the case of fluvial and urban flooding and reflect on the potential for improved flood preparedness action. However, we note that, unlike for drought, there remains no national flood risk management framework in Kenya and there is need to enhance institutional capacities and arrangements to take full advantage of these scientific advances

A framework for improving treatment of uncertainty in offshore wind assessments for protected marine birds

Governments worldwide are setting ambitious targets for offshore renewable energy development (ORD). However, deployment is constrained by a lack of understanding of the environmental consequences of ORD, with impacts on protected birds forming a key environmental consenting challenge. Assessing the impacts of ORD on marine birds is challenging, utilizing interlinked approaches to understand complex behavioural, energetic, and demographic processes. Consequently, there is considerable uncertainty associated with ORD assessments for marine birds, with current methods failing to quantify uncertainty in a scientifically robust, evidence-based manner. This leads to a high degree of precaution and a lack of confidence in the evidence used to inform ORD consenting decisions. We review the methods used to estimate ornithological ORD impacts in the UK, a country at the forefront of ORD. We identify areas in which uncertainty quantification could be improved through statistical modelling, data collection, or adaptation of the assessment process. We develop a framework for end-to-end quantification of uncertainty, integrating uncertainty estimates from individual stages of the assessment process. Finally, we provide research recommendations to better quantify and reduce uncertainty, to lower future ORD consenting risk. These recommendations extend beyond the UK and could improve impact assessments in other countries with different legislative frameworks

Empowering researchers through data stewardship and digital training to adapt to new data services

In an increasingly digital research landscape, the importance of open and FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) data practices are becoming more apparent. Technology advances open up new ways of discovering and re-using large volumes of data, however they can also require a higher entry-point for users, who must have the digital literacy to be able to interact with these emerging technologies and interfaces. As such, education remains a key tool for providing researchers with the skills and knowledge to understand how to adapt these technologies to their own scientific discipline, and ensure their own datasets are compatible for use by both humans and machines. Here, we explore the uses of training and data stewardship for improving researcher digital skills, from developing practical day-to-day approaches in research data management, through to increasing awareness and understanding of how to interact with complex digital systems effectively. While some research groups often have a range of digital skills, these are often either self-taught or learnt only for a specific purpose, limiting how data can be reused. By engaging with researchers across different disciplines and backgrounds, we can lower that entry point for interacting with NERC data services, allowing more efficient and increased opportunities data re-use. This engagement includes both one-on-one data stewardship throughout a project to use a specific service, as well as wider training for key staff within a research organisation to develop and promote best practices which can be disseminated throughout their teams and incorporated into future research. By engaging with researchers early on in the project lifecycle, we can bridge the gap between what users require from NERC data services, what services and guidance we provide, and showcase the benefits and opportunities of open and FAIR data. This ensures that researchers have the capabilities to interact with new digital research infrastructures efficiently, which not only reduces barriers to accessing environmental data, but also increases it’s potential for re-use in new innovative ways

Assessing the relative roles of systemic, non-systemic and transovarial transmission pathways for severe fever with thrombocytopaenia syndrome virus and its implications for future research and intervention strategies

Severe fever with thrombocytopaenia syndrome virus (SFTSV) was identified by the World Health Organization as a priority pathogen due to its high case-fatality rate in humans and rapid spread. It is maintained in nature through three transmission pathways: systemic, non-systemic and transovarial. Understanding the relative contributions of these transmission pathways is crucial for developing evidence-informed public health interventions to reduce its spillover risks to humans. Using next-generation matrices, sensitivity analyses, elasticity analyses and random forest models, we estimated the basic reproduction number R0, relative contribution of each pathway, and identified the most sensitive model parameters across 27 scenarios. Results showed that R0 ranged from 0.72 to 2.08 across scenarios, increasing with higher tick abundance and longer viraemia. Transovarial transmission dominated in 26 scenarios, while the importance of the other two varied, with non-systemic transmission more important under high tick abundance, short viraemia or aggregated tick distribution. R0 dropped below 1 in all scenarios when transovarial transmission was excluded. These findings emphasize the need for interventions targeting transovarial transmission, such as reducing female adult tick survival and limiting large vertebrate host movement, and underscore the importance of laboratory studies measuring sensitive parameters including transovarial transmission efficiency, tick survival probabilities and the duration of viraemia and potential for non-systemic transmission for key animal host species with high seroprevalence rates

Structural controls on pressure communication across the Bunter Sandstone Formation, UK Southern North Sea

The utilization of extensive saline aquifers for CO 2 storage will require careful consideration of the potential pressure responses. The displacement of formation waters results in far-reaching pressure footprints that extend beyond the storage sites. Where multiple storage projects share a connected saline aquifer, the available pressure budgets for neighbouring projects may be negatively impacted. Structures such as faults and salt walls can potentially divide an aquifer into smaller hydraulic units. The extent of hydraulic units in the Bunter Sandstone Formation (BSF) within the UK Southern North Sea (UKSNS) was investigated by structural interpretation of seismic data. A new classification scheme was developed to characterize the major structural features affecting the BSF and their likely impact on boundary conditions. The resultant boundary condition map indicates where structures are expected to inhibit pressure communication through displacement/dislocation of the BSF aquifer. The results were validated by pressure data, which confirmed the existence of variable pressure regimes across the BSF. Understanding these boundary conditions is essential to support the strategic deployment of CO 2 storage in the UKSNS and to maximize storage capacity. The methodology can also be applied to other regions where extensive saline aquifers are considered for CO 2 storage

Editorial: Biodiversity of Antarctic and Subantarctic ecosystems

The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) adopted a work program (2019–2030) that included, under its first objective, the interlinkages between biodiversity and climate change (IPBES, 2019). Because most ecosystems worldwide face multiple anthropogenic pressures, however, it is difficult to disentangle the specific effects of climate change from those of others such as habitat degradation, pollution or overexploitation. Against this backdrop, the Antarctic and subAntarctic (ASA) regions —including some of the most pristine environments remaining on Earth— offer unparalleled opportunities to understand, evaluate and predict the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in the general absence of other confounding anthropogenic drivers. These regions serve as natural laboratories for two main reasons: first, ASA biodiversity has already endured repeated and drastic climatic oscillations over timescales ranging from decades to tens of millions of years, providing a unique archive of responses to past change; second, some ASA areas are now experiencing some of the fastest rates of warming on the planet. The South Shetland Islands, for example, have undergone profound transformations over the past four decades, including the emergence of new ice-free areas, streams and freshwater bodies (Lee et al., 2017; Petsch et al., 2022; Tóth et al., 2025). Studying these transitions provides essential insights into how climate change reshapes ecosystems when other anthropogenic drivers remain minimal

Prevalence and consequences of microplastic ingestion in the world's southernmost insect, Belgica antarctica

Plastic pollution has reached the remote terrestrial ecosystems of Antarctica, but the extent to which microplastics are affecting native terrestrial invertebrates has not been assessed. Using Antarctica's only endemic insect, the chironomid midge Belgica antarctica, as a focal species, the objectives of this study were two-fold: 1) Investigate the physiological consequences of polyethylene microplastic exposure in a laboratory setting and 2) Determine the extent to which field-collected larvae contain ingested microplastics. We exposed B. antarctica larvae to ingestible polyethylene microplastic beads (∼27–45 μm diameter) at various concentrations (up to 2000 mg kg−1 substrate) for 10 days. Ingestion of beads was only observed at the two highest concentrations, and survival and metabolic rates were unchanged across all concentrations. While carbohydrates and proteins stores were unaffected by plastic exposure, lipid stores tended to decrease with increasing plastics concentration. For Objective 2, field-collected larvae from 13 islands were screened for microplastics with two approaches, either imaging digestive samples with μ-FTIR and μ-Raman microscopy or spotting digested guts onto glass filters and scanning with μ-Raman. While the latter approach was inconclusive, two of the 29 larvae (7 %) imaged with μ-FTIR had potential plastics, and one of these particles was confirmed as plastic using μ-Raman. Thus, the presence of plastics in larvae is likely rare at present, although our results do provide further evidence that microplastics can enter Antarctic food webs. Taken together, our results indicate that high concentrations of plastics can have physiological consequences, although it appears unlikely that these levels are currently approached in the field